Charlotte’s Snow Drought: Can This Winter Change Things?
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — If you’ve been living in Charlotte, you’ve probably noticed something peculiar: it has been a startling 1,028 days since the Queen City has seen any snow! That’s right, folks – we are deep into the longest snow drought in our city’s history. To add to the fun, we’ve had not one, but two snow-free seasons in the last couple of years, marking them as true firsts for Charlotte. So, the big question on everyone’s mind is: will this winter finally break the snowless streak?
The Ingredients of Winter Forecasts
Let’s take a closer look at what’s cooking in this winter’s weather forecast. A significant player in our winter weather is La Niña, a phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña typically affects winter weather patterns throughout the Carolinas. We’ve recently enjoyed three consecutive winters influenced by La Niña, but last year we had a change with the arrival of El Niño. What does this mean for us?
- Warmer and Drier Conditions: In general, La Niña tends to bring warmer and drier winters to the Southeast, including our beloved Carolinas. Expect to see less precipitation!
- Reduced Snowfall: Due to the drier conditions, snowfall is generally below average. For instance, areas like the Triangle have had winters where it barely snowed during La Niña years.
- Increased Drought Risk: With precipitation levels dropping, we could see more drought-like situations, which has happened in previous La Niña winters.
- Occasional Cold Spells: Even though we’re looking at warmer temps overall, don’t be surprised if we experience a few chilly snaps or frost issues, particularly in the northern regions of the Carolinas.
The Siberian Connection
Interestingly, what happens thousands of miles away in Siberia can have a say in our winter weather! Yes, you read that right. The amount of snowfall in Siberia during October can impact weather patterns across the East Coast of the U.S.
- Snow Cover and the Polar Vortex: If Siberia sees near-average snowfall, it can create a stronger polar vortex, keeping that frosty air tightly packed in the Arctic.
- Arctic Oscillation (AO): This pattern can also affect the mildness of our winters. When Siberian snowfall is normal, it can keep the AO neutral, leading to warmer winters here.
- Cold Air Outbreaks: Despite the warmer trends, there’s always the chance for polar air to sneak down, so don’t put those winter coats away just yet!
What About Those Warm Sea Temperatures?
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the ocean have their own role to play in the winter conditions we experience in the Carolinas. Here’s how:
- Warmer Temperatures: When SSTs are higher, expect warmer air temps since the ocean releases its heat into the atmosphere.
- Increased Precipitation: Warmer waters can increase evaporation, leading to additional moisture in the air and possibly more frequent storms.
- Drought Conditions: However, if it’s connected to a La Niña pattern, drier conditions might appear in the Carolinas.
The Outlook
In the last 20 years, Charlotte has only seen above-average snowfall in just five of them, and right now, it seems the trend is moving in a similar direction. The combination of La Niña, warm water, and resulting weather patterns suggests we could be looking at another mild winter with below-average snowfall.
However, there is a silver lining! Some forecasts hint at a possibility of breaking this snow drought. Predictions suggest that Charlotte could see 1 to 2 inches of snow at some point this winter. Given that our average snowfall is pretty low, even one good storm can make a significant difference!
So, while we might not be building snowmen in the streets just yet, keep your fingers crossed. After all, winter weather can surprise us, and maybe this year will add a bit of white magic to the equation. Stay warm, Charlotte!
